Throughout the US presidential campaign, President-elect Obama laid out an ambitious energy plan which would end US dependence on foreign oil within 10 years. How real does that commitment look on this, the morning after his historic win?
This morning's Globe and Mail looks at the key elements of Obama's plan and concludes that in light of a $700 billion bailout package for the financial sector, expected drops in tax revenue and falling oil prices, energy is unlikely to be a key priority during his first two years in office (see Obama's Energy Plan May Be Curbed, Tom Doggett, November 5th).
Not to be outdone, the Wall Street Journal's blog Environmental Capital has posted a story on the same theme (see Obama Nation: What Will It Be Able to Do About Energy?, November 5th) suggesting that the President-elect's efforts on energy will be subservient to the path the US economy takes.
"Mr. Obama’s large election win after a campaign that placed unusual emphasis on energy policy has already raised expectations. The economy could yet dash them."
However, Mr. Doggett, the WSJ and other observers seem to see exceptions for support for green technologies that lead to new jobs for the embattled US economy. For example, Renewable Energy World.com suggests that a Democratic led House and Senate will be more supportive of the renewables industry (see How Will Renewables fare in the New Political Environment, November 5th). The article seems to be hoping rather than speaking with any authority, e.g.:
"With a Democrat in the White House and a significant Democratic majority in Congress, industry leaders are hopeful that renewable energies will become a higher national priority."
Renewable Energy World does cite an article from Bloomberg that provides a bit more analysis, suggesting that Obama may act as quickly as early next year to support a transition to greater reliance on renewable energy sources as a job creation measure (see Obama May Put Renewable Energy Plan Ahead of Climate Package, Daniel Whitten, November 5th).
"With unemployment at a five-year high, an early effort to create jobs by encouraging electricity production from solar and wind will get top priority, ....."
The cost of putting an early priority on renewable energy being a delay in action on climate change (although, in the long run, support for renewables may be one of the most effective measures to address climate change).
Regardless of priorities though, its hard to see how the state of the US government's finances will not have a huge, negative impact on new spending plans. An US$11 trillion national debt (US$35,000 for every man, women and child in the country) and a deficit projected to reach US$1 trillion in 2009 are sure to limit what Obama or anyone else can do for the forseeable future.
